This white paper explores strategies to reverse declining college enrollments by modernizing application processes and aligning academic programs with industry needs. It advocates for data-driven enrollment platforms, personalized career guidance, and competency-based education models to enhance student outcomes. By adopting these innovations, universities can stay competitive, improve ROI for learners, and better meet workforce demands.

Traditional universities are struggling with enrollment post-pandemic. From fall 2019 to fall 2020, enrollment in U.S. public four-year institutions dropped by 13.8%, while private non-profit institutions saw a 28.6% decline. The California Community College system, the largest in the nation, experienced an 11% drop in student numbers from fall 2019 to fall 2020, losing nearly 300,000 learners over the subsequent two years. Similarly, Texas public universities faced a significant enrollment decline, with the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board reporting an 8% drop in enrollment from fall 2019 to fall 2020 (see image below). These significant reductions highlight the challenges faced by traditional universities in attracting and retaining learners during and after the pandemic. 

Pandemic was a black swan event that disrupted the higher education sector among many others. In my opinion, the education sector was due for disruption and signs of disruptions were visible with the growth of online certificate courses. From 2011 to 2021, the number of learners reached by massive open online courses (MOOCs) surged from 300,000 to 220 million [3]. Between 2012 and 2019, the number of learners enrolling in online programs grew by 36%, whereas during the pandemic, this growth accelerated to 92%. Some of the biggest factors contributing to this change are:   

Entry of digital technology startups which challenged the traditional degree granting universities. Venture Capital (VC) funding increased from $1B in 2017 to $8B in 2021.  In 2021, Coursera’s IPO was valued at more than $4B showing wall streets’ appetite for EdTech sector [4]. Between 2015 and 2022, the enrollment in EdTech platforms saw exponential growth. In 2015, Coursera had around 15 million users, which skyrocketed to over 97 million by the end of 2022. Compared to universities (US and EU only), where 20 million students were enrolled in 2015, and this number went down to 15 million in 2022.  This downward trend in enrollment began around 2010 and continued through 2021. Factors contributing to this decline include the rising cost of higher education, changing demographics, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, total college enrollment (graduate and undergraduate) fell by 4% from fall 2019 to fall 2023, with undergraduate enrollment decreasing by 5.6% and community college enrollment dropping by 12%.

One. Entry of digital technology startups which challenged the traditional degree granting universities. Venture Capital (VC) funding increased from $1B in 2017 to $8B in 2021.  In 2021, Coursera’s IPO was valued at more than $4B showing wall streets’ appetite for EdTech sector [4]. Between 2015 and 2022, the enrollment in EdTech platforms saw exponential growth. In 2015, Coursera had around 15 million users, which skyrocketed to over 97 million by the end of 2022. Compared to universities (US and EU only), where 20 million students were enrolled in 2015, and this number went down to 15 million in 2022.  This downward trend in enrollment began around 2010 and continued through 2021. Factors contributing to this decline include the rising cost of higher education, changing demographics, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, total college enrollment (graduate and undergraduate) fell by 4% from fall 2019 to fall 2023, with undergraduate enrollment decreasing by 5.6% and community college enrollment dropping by 12%.

Two. Growing blurriness between degree and non-degree courses. College degrees are a symbol of quality and credibility. Due to which traditional universities have historically treated degree and certificate (non-degree) programs as wholly separate. Learners are quickly realizing that markets do not discriminate between the two, hence certificate programs are increasingly being considered equivalent to traditional education. EdTech also realized the importance of quality and based on market forces they have propelled to focus on quality of education, thus increasing the competition further. Google Grow, in collaboration with Coursera, offers courses in high-demand fields such as user experience design and data analytics. These programs have significantly increased enrollment by providing prospective learners with cost-effective and efficient alternatives to traditional degree programs.  

Three. Programs in universities are not updated to create skills among learners that meet industry requirements. 68% of the students, in the MPDI survey [5], stated that they acquired necessary technical and practical skills by being on the job and not from the university program they enrolled in. Furthermore, the McKinsey report emphasizes that only 20% of graduates feel satisfied with the skills they attained during their university education, suggesting a significant disconnect between academic curricula and employer expectations.  

Four. Higher Return on Investment (ROI), for prospective learners looking to upgrade skills, especially in IT sector, the requirement to build new skills are more important than the brand of education. Further, according to McKinsey’s segmentation survey [6], learners would only pay for an education program if there were a positive ROI or career outcome.  

If universities or legacy institutions want to preserve importance and relevance to learners, they must overhaul their core belief of learning and knowledge first and careers second.  Further, Universities need to start embracing certifications programs as equally important, and in some cases even more, especially for prospective students who are now focused on ROI and career driven outcomes. In my opinion below are the steps that universities should take to embrace this challenge.  

One. Simple and data driven enrollment process – EdTech startups have revolutionized the education sector with their incredibly simple and efficient registration processes. Companies like Coursera, Udemy, and edX make it remarkably easy for students to sign up and start learning almost immediately. This streamlined approach is a key factor in their ability to attract students quickly and effectively. To combat this trend, state universities must simplify their application procedures and enhance their appeal to modern students.   

States should build a unified online application process that connects multiple state universities, which can significantly enhance the enrollment experience for prospective students. By creating a single, user-friendly platform where students can apply to multiple institutions simultaneously, state universities can attract more applicants and reduce the administrative burden on both students and admissions offices. This would also enhance collaboration between universities. Institutions can work together to offer joint programs, share best practices, and streamline administrative processes, ultimately benefiting students and universities alike. 

To provide guidance to learners, universities should use a data driven approach. Universities should track students from middle school based on their interests and academic performance and then proactively guide them towards suitable career paths and streamline the application process when the time comes. To implement this approach universities, need to:  
1. Identification and tracking – Implement tools to collect data on students’ academic performance, interests, extracurricular activities, and career aspirations starting from middle school. This can include surveys, standardized test scores, and teacher assessments. 
2. Interest based recommendations – Use data analytics to identify students’ strengths and interests, providing tailored recommendations for potential career paths and academic majors. For example, a student excelling in math and science with an interest in technology might be guided towards engineering or computer science. 

Implementation of such technology would be challenging, for universities should partner or integrate with private companies like Naviance. Naviance is a college and career readiness platform that helps students identify their strengths and interests, set goals, and track progress. Schools use Naviance to guide students from middle school through high school, ensuring they are prepared for college applications.  

Similarly, MyBlueprint offers an education and career planning tool that allows students to explore career options, track academic performance, and create personalized education plans. The platform integrates data from various sources to provide tailored guidance. Schools using MyBlueprint have reported higher student engagement and better alignment between student interests and career paths.  

Two. Work based learning: Transformation of career planning and coaching – Top reason for a learner to engage in a learning activity is a stalled career. Universities should engage with students to better align career outcomes and job placement. Work with students to set specific goals and work towards accomplishing them by adjusting the educational program as a continuous learning process.  

A practical way to approach this would be to ask students upfront questions related to their passion, skills and experience. Use the answers to point them towards major and career options that align with their profile. Using this data, universities should create personalized studies and skill-based plans.  This is a deviation from the degree format where students are directed towards completion of the program based on curriculum for that degree. The University of Michigan’s career services conduct extensive surveys and one-on-one sessions to understand students’ interests and skills. Based on this data, they provide tailored career guidance and internship opportunities [7]. 

For students to benefit from this structure, universities should create proper guardrails by having more frequent check-ins, student performance and counselling. The structure should allow for quick pivot if the administrator or student finds the curriculum not matching students’ needs. Stanford’s advising model includes quarterly check-ins with academic advisors to review student progress and adjust academic plans as needed. This includes the flexibility to pivot majors or courses based on student performance and feedback [8]. Similarly, ASU’s eAdvisor system monitors student progress in real-time and provides alerts if students are off track. Advisors then intervene to offer guidance and make necessary adjustments to their academic plan [9].  

Three. Revolutionize employer – learner relationship – To remain competitive and relevant in the rapidly evolving educational landscape, universities must revolutionize their relationships with employers and learners. By creating strong partnerships and aligning educational outcomes with market demands, universities can ensure their graduates are well-prepared for the workforce.  

1. Integrating education with training – In their report on the future of work, McKinsey [10] emphasizes the importance of integrated work-study programs that combine classroom learning with real-world work experiences. Such programs help students apply theoretical knowledge in practical settings, making them more job-ready upon graduation. Northeastern University’s co-op program allows students to alternate between academic semesters and full-time work placements, providing valuable industry experience and networking opportunities.  
2. Competency based education (CBE) – Western Governors University (WGU) uses a CBE model, enabling students to demonstrate their knowledge and skills through assessments. This approach ensures graduates are proficient in the competencies required by employers [11]. Bain suggests that universities adopt competency-based education models, which focus on the mastery of specific skills rather than time spent in class. CBE allows students to progress at their own pace and ensures they acquire the skills most relevant to their chosen careers.  
3. Industry partnership and advisory boards – In an article on bridging the skills gap, HBR recommends that universities establish partnerships with industry leaders and create advisory boards to keep curricula aligned with market needs. These collaborations can provide insights into emerging trends and help universities develop relevant programs [12].  
4. Lifelong Learning and Continuous Education – Need for universities to support lifelong learning by offering continuous education programs that help professionals upskill and reskill throughout their careers. This approach can help bridge the gap between initial education and evolving job requirements. Stanford University’s Center for Professional Development offers a range of online and on-campus courses designed for working professionals. These programs enable learners to stay current with industry developments and advance their careers [13]. 

The post-pandemic decline in university enrollments underscores the urgent need for traditional institutions to innovate and adapt. EdTech platforms have set a high bar with their simple, efficient registration processes and career-focused programs, attracting millions of learners. To compete, state universities must streamline their application procedures through unified online platforms and adopt data-driven approaches to guide students from middle school through to their careers. 

States like Texas (my home state) and others can leverage these strategies to their advantage by creating a unified online application system that connects all state universities. This approach can significantly enhance the enrollment experience, attract more applicants, and reduce administrative burdens. By partnering with platforms like Naviance and MyBlueprint, states can provide personalized guidance to students, ensuring they choose career paths aligned with market demands. Additionally, integrating work-study programs, competency-based education, and continuous professional development will help align university curricula with industry needs, improving job placement outcomes. These efforts will not only keep universities relevant but also ensure they effectively prepare students for the evolving workforce. 

References:  

1. McKinsey & Company. 
2. MIT Press Direct. 
3. “A Decade of MOOCs: A Review of Stats and Trends for Large-Scale Online Courses in 2021”. 
4. “Demand for online education is growing. Are providers ready?”. 
5. Crizboi, C., Holmaghi, A., & Roman, M. N. (2017). How to Align the University Curricula with the Market Demands by Developing Employability Skills in the Civil Engineering Sector. Education Sciences, 7(3), 74. https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7102/7/3/74. 
6. McKinsey Segmentation Survey. 
7. “Personalized Career Planning.” University of Michigan. 
8. “Academic Advising at Stanford.” Stanford University. 
9. “eAdvisor System.” Arizona State University. 
10. McKinsey & Company. “COVID-19 and US Higher Education Enrollment: Preparing Leaders for Fall.” https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/education/our-insights/covid-19-and-us-higher-education-enrollment-preparing-leaders-for-fall. 
11. Labour Market Research. “Mapping the (mis)match of university degrees in the graduate labor market.” https://labourmarketresearch.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s12651-021-00297-x. 
12. Labour Market Research. “Mapping the (mis)match of university degrees in the graduate labor market.” https://labourmarketresearch.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s12651-021-00297-x. 
13. Crizboi, C., Holmaghi, A., & Roman, M. N. (2017). How to Align the University Curricula with the Market Demands by Developing Employability Skills in the Civil Engineering Sector. Education Sciences, 7(3), 74. https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7102/7/3/74.